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[gear noises]
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Change is nothing new
in man's life.
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When we first appeared
on the planet,
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the world around him
changed constantly.
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But it was the regular,
repeated change of the seasons.
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In himself too, he saw
from generation to generation,
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the same familiar
pattern recur;
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of growth, maturity
and death.
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And then, one day,
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man used his hand
to fashion the tool.
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And, from the first moment
he used that tool,
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he changed
the pattern of change.
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No longer regular,
repeated,
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the new tool brought
permanent change,
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till the new world
it had created
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was changed again
by the next innovation.
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And, as man's abilities grew,
his world changed faster.
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(cars honking)
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This series of programs has
tried to show THAT happening
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through history,
in eight different cases;
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each one, a chain
of events leading
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to an invention
in the modern world.
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Those eight inventions
are behind me now;
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grouped together in a way
that means a great deal
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to you and me;
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telecommunications, the computer,
the jet engine, plastics,
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rockets, television,
the atomic bomb.
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The eighth invention
was the production line;
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the system
that makes it possible
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to make millions of copies
of the other seven inventions
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so that they surround us
in the modern world,
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and affect almost every aspect
of our daily lives.
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Those inventions and all
the other man-made objects,
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with which we surround
ourselves,
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act as i said
in the first program,
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like a giant network,
each part of which
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is interdependent
on every other part.
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So that if change
happens in one part,
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or one part
fails to operate,
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the affect is felt
throughout the network.
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Sometimes, the affect
of that failure
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isn't particularly
devastating.
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You miss the bus,
you don't get to work;
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somehow the world
manages without you.
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Sometimes though, how the
interconnecting inventions
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fit together,
matters a great deal.
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And in that case, failure
can lead to catastrophic result.
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That's why,
for example,
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the particular way
our eight inventions
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fit together behind me here,
matters.
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If one of them fails,
the triggering effect
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of that failure could lead
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to a rather particular
kind of chain reaction.
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They're in a B-52.
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This bomber stands for
the interdependent world
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we have made for ourselves,
where the rate of change
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accelerates every second,
because every one
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of man's inventions
acts like a trigger,
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to cause change.
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This was the first great trigger
of change: the plough.
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It appeared
maybe 7.000 years ago,
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and when it did,
it gave people the chance
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to grow enough grain,
not just to survive,
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but to provide a surplus
to support craftsmen.
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And, that triggered
the beginnings of civilization.
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With enough food,
the population expanded,
every year.
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Small villages sprang up,
and they too grew larger
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with the population.
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In the spreading fields
around the villages,
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the technique grew of irrigating
the land from the nearby river.
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As the grain supply increased,
it had to be stored.
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The idea of the potter's wheel
solved that problem.
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Who it belonged to,
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demanded the development
of writing.
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And, building these
irrigation ditches
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taught people the skills
of engineering
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and mathematics that
gave them in turn, architecture.
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And, the need to predict
floods for irrigation
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brought realization
that the flood was annual;
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that gave them a calendar
their government could use
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to enforce law through
a police force and an army,
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who needed weapon makers
to protect the wealth
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of the country from invasion;
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A country that was now an empire,
all because of the plough.
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You see, the almost
frightening difference
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between that simple
trigger of change;
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the plough,
and almost any object
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you care to anme
in the modern world.
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Because the world
we live in
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is so much more complex,
more interdependent,
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the potential for change
hidden in the most
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humdrum piece
of modern technology;
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the kind of stuff
you can go and buy
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at your local hardware
store, is immense.
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Because, the number
of connections
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between any one these,
and the factories that make them,
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and through the factories,
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back to the technology
network, is enormous.
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And there're thousands of bits
of humdrum technology like that.
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In recent years,
more and more people
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have come to realize the need to
try and find a way to look ahead,
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to see what kind of
change is coming.
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If only we can find
a way to identify
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which of the triggers
around us is a key trigger,
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and which is going to
kind of
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stay on the shelf
and do nothing.
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That's why this series dealt
with the inventions it did;
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and not say, the hairpin,
or the ice-cream cone,
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or the toilet roll,
or a thousand other examples
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of what you might call
second-level technology.
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Although, calling
them that is a guess;
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who knows
what somebody's doing
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with the toilet roll
right now.
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But i think it was fair
to have gone
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with the ones we did,
as being the ones
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most likely to matter
in the future.
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The question is, in that way
are the triggers
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around us likely to operate,
to cause things
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to change, for better
or worse?
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And, is there anything
we can learn from the way
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that heppened before,
so we can teach ourselves
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to look for and recognize
the signs of change.
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The trouble is,
that's not easy,
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when you've been taught,
as I was, for example,
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that things in the past happened
in straightforward lines.
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I mean, take one
over-simple example
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of what I'm talking about.
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The idea of putting the past
into packaged units;
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subjects, like agriculture.
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The minute you look at
this apparently clear-cut
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view of things,
you see the holes.
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I mean,
look at the tractor.
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Oh sure,
it worked in the fields,
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but is it part of
the history of agriculture?
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Or a dozen other things;
the steam engine,
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the electric spark,
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petroleum development,
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rubber technology;
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it's a countrified car.
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And, the fertilizer
that follows;
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it doesn't follow.
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That came as much as
anything else
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from a fellow trying to make
artificial diamonds.
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And here's another
old favorite.
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Eureka,
great inventors;
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you know, the lonely genius
in the garret
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with the light bulb
that goes 'ping' in his head.
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Well, if you've seen
anything of this series,
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you'll know what a wrong
approach to things that is.
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None of these guys
did anything by themselves.
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They borrowed from
other people's work.
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And how could you ever say,
when a golden age
of anything started and stop.
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The age of steam certainly
wasn't started by James Watt,
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nor did the fellow whose engine
he was trying to repair;
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Newcomen, nor did
his predecessor Savery
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nor the fellow
before him, Papin.
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And Papin was only doing
what he was doing,
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because they had trouble
draining the mines.
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You see what
I'm trying to say.
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This makes you think
in straight lines;
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and if today, it doesn't
happen in straight lines,
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I mean, think of
your own experience.
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Why should the past have?
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That's part of what the series
have tried to show.
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That the past zigzagged along
just like the present does,
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with nobody knowing
what's coming next;
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only we do it,
more complicatedly.
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And it's because our lives
are that much more complex
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than theirs were,
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that it's worth
bothering about the past.
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Because, you don't know
how you got somewhere,
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you don't know
where you are.
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And we, are at the end
of a journey;
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the journey from the past.
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But, is the past so random,
so accidental, so one off,
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that there's no trick
to be learned from it?
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No clue that we can use,
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to second-guess
our own futures?
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Or, is there a pattern
to it?
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Can we look into the past,
and see thee future?
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You may not care,
except of course,
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you'll have to live
with the result;
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it's your future.
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Unites, she said,
Japan and China
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could now look to
unrestrained challenges.
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after which point, the right
of vote would be limited
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to those only
in category A.
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The memory enhancement drug
would be released
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on to the market
earlier than -
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the embargo by Africa
and the US would affect
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the european economy
in a very -
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the president hailed
the new cancer cure
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as a triumph for american
medical science,
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which will be shared
with the rest of the world.
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You don't have to look very far,
to see if the past can help.
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Try your own house,
or the house next door.
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They're full of clues,
including some of the stuff
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we looked at in this series.
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And, if you sift those clues
they seem to fall into groups;
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numbers of events that occured
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because the same
influence was at work,
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even though it was
in different times
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and different places.
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Religion is often a stimulus
for invention.
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Let me just give you
one example.
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Here you are, a medieval monk
in your dormitory,
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desperate for
a good night's sleep
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so you can wake up
at 5 o'clock in the morning,
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or some other hour
that god has not forsaken,
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in order to say the prayer
you're supposed to say
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at that hour,
because if you don't,
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you'll be in trouble.
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And you can't
go to sleep,
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in case you're asleep
at the big moment.
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No wonder the monks
were desperate
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to get out of their bind.
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Life is bad enough
without a case of insomnia.
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The result of
their desperation
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is in this room now.
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See it?
(alarm clock ringing)
Yes, the alarm clock.
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Religion gave us
clockwork and the mania
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for knowing what time it is;
thanks!
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Warfare
also stimulates change.
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I mean, in battle you tend to
try and think of new ways
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of not getting clobbered,
don't you?
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And if you saw
the last program,
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you may have noticed
what the cannon did.
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One of the first things
was to change
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the shape of towns,
so they could use their cannon
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to defend themselves with
crossfire along every wall.
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The new ramparts
all around the town
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got surveyors a lot of business,
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and they developed new
instruments: like this one.
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They were also very useful
for producing something else.
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The kind of thing
it helps you and me
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get where we're going
on holiday: maps.
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Oh, and this is
a really weird one.
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This came out of warfare too:
the screwdriver.
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You know why?
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How do you think you screw
a knight in armor?
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00:11:45,235 --> 00:11:46,360
That's what it was
developed for.
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So the next time your wife
ask you to fix a plug,
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you'll know who to blame.
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Then, a lot of really big things
happened by accident;
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like the invention
on your front door.
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(doorbell ringing)
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See, back in
17th century Germany,
248
00:11:58,883 --> 00:12:01,376
a fellow called Girica
was rubbing himself a ball;
249
00:12:01,376 --> 00:12:04,031
why not; to find out
if it attracted things
250
00:12:04,031 --> 00:12:05,915
like a magnet does,
when suddenly,
251
00:12:05,915 --> 00:12:09,008
out jumped a spark;
accidental electricity.
252
00:12:09,211 --> 00:12:11,217
(bell ringing)
253
00:12:13,216 --> 00:12:16,844
One of the loonier inventions,
which you find in most houses,
254
00:12:16,844 --> 00:12:19,096
happened in Scotland
in the 18th century,
255
00:12:19,096 --> 00:12:21,034
at a place called Culross
near Edinburgh,
256
00:12:21,034 --> 00:12:23,401
where there was this penniless
Earl of Dundonald
257
00:12:23,401 --> 00:12:26,584
who was trying to scrape up
a bit of cash, by inventing things;
258
00:12:27,167 --> 00:12:28,946
one of which was an idea
259
00:12:28,946 --> 00:12:31,831
for making the stuff they used
to paint on ships bottoms,
260
00:12:31,831 --> 00:12:33,482
to protect them
against woodworm.
261
00:12:33,733 --> 00:12:36,511
Dundonals
was a born loser,
262
00:12:36,511 --> 00:12:39,370
and his idea for making
the stuff was this.
263
00:12:41,457 --> 00:12:42,876
He cooked coal
in a kettle,
264
00:12:42,876 --> 00:12:45,459
and condensed the fumes
that comes out, coal tar.
265
00:12:45,655 --> 00:12:47,205
One day,
he had an accident.
266
00:12:47,704 --> 00:12:50,757
His experiment was making
inflammable vapor, and it blew up.
267
00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:52,350
(explosion)
268
00:12:52,917 --> 00:12:54,306
And, although
Dundonald didn't know
269
00:12:54,306 --> 00:12:59,211
what his accident had produced,
others did: domestic gas.
270
00:13:00,819 --> 00:13:03,676
I suppose, you would expect
the environment
271
00:13:03,676 --> 00:13:05,920
to have a hand in causing
things to change.
272
00:13:06,194 --> 00:13:08,586
Like in the 13th century
when the great freeze up
273
00:13:08,586 --> 00:13:10,575
came along and gave
everybody a very bad time,
274
00:13:10,575 --> 00:13:11,527
for several hundred years.
275
00:13:11,801 --> 00:13:14,229
So, in self-defense,
they worked out a way
276
00:13:14,229 --> 00:13:15,956
of having many more fires
in the house,
277
00:13:15,956 --> 00:13:17,963
and at the same time,
cut down on the danger
278
00:13:17,963 --> 00:13:19,463
of sparks blowing
everywhere,
279
00:13:19,463 --> 00:13:22,366
by developing something
that had a nice safe draft.
280
00:13:23,028 --> 00:13:24,556
Worked on the same
principle as this;
281
00:13:24,994 --> 00:13:26,371
it was called the chimney.
282
00:13:26,518 --> 00:13:27,901
What a change that made!
283
00:13:28,611 --> 00:13:32,725
And then, in 19th century
Florida, the hot weather
284
00:13:32,725 --> 00:13:34,806
got a local doctor
called John Gorrie
285
00:13:34,806 --> 00:13:37,150
all fussed up because he was
looking for a way
286
00:13:37,150 --> 00:13:38,178
to keep his patients cool,
287
00:13:38,178 --> 00:13:40,621
because he thought malaria
was caused by the heat.
288
00:13:41,470 --> 00:13:42,327
Well, he was wrong.
289
00:13:42,628 --> 00:13:46,214
But along the way, he invented
air-conditioning.
290
00:13:49,935 --> 00:13:51,100
So, what've we got?
291
00:13:52,471 --> 00:13:53,844
We've got religion, war,
292
00:13:53,844 --> 00:13:55,763
accident,
the environment.
293
00:13:56,014 --> 00:13:57,529
Then, there's a classic;
294
00:13:57,808 --> 00:13:59,649
you know, when you decide
to invent something
295
00:13:59,649 --> 00:14:00,743
and you keep at it
until you do,
296
00:14:00,743 --> 00:14:02,423
because you know it's going
to make you a lot of money.
297
00:14:03,012 --> 00:14:05,603
That's how things
got put in cans.
298
00:14:08,352 --> 00:14:10,445
And how the domestic
refrigerator happened.
299
00:14:11,677 --> 00:14:15,693
And, this kind of steel;
and this one.
300
00:14:17,523 --> 00:14:20,858
Do you know Edison tried
6.000 different materials
301
00:14:20,858 --> 00:14:22,708
before settling on
the right one, for that filament?
302
00:14:23,833 --> 00:14:25,312
What a bore
that must have been!
303
00:14:27,182 --> 00:14:29,071
My favorite influence
to change is the one
304
00:14:29,071 --> 00:14:30,435
where something is working away
305
00:14:30,435 --> 00:14:34,151
successfully in one field,
and then switches to another,
that at the time,
306
00:14:34,151 --> 00:14:36,669
has apparently nothing
to do with it.
307
00:14:37,319 --> 00:14:39,699
That's how these Paisley
designs happened.
308
00:14:40,014 --> 00:14:41,425
See how complex
the design is?
309
00:14:42,457 --> 00:14:44,222
Back in the early
18th century in France,
310
00:14:44,696 --> 00:14:46,381
a bunch of weavers
were looking for a way
311
00:14:46,381 --> 00:14:48,656
of making complicated
designs more easily,
312
00:14:49,036 --> 00:14:52,648
and one of them had a father
that made automatic organs.
313
00:14:56,589 --> 00:14:59,581
The organs worked in places
like automatic puppet theaters,
314
00:14:59,581 --> 00:15:00,944
on a very simple idea.
315
00:15:01,409 --> 00:15:04,155
You turned a cylinder
with pegs fitted to it
316
00:15:04,155 --> 00:15:06,796
that tripped control levers
that led compressed air
317
00:15:06,796 --> 00:15:08,466
into one organ pipe
or another.
318
00:15:08,780 --> 00:15:10,926
The weaver realized
that the paper
319
00:15:10,926 --> 00:15:12,898
with the holes in it,
that told the organ maker
320
00:15:12,898 --> 00:15:13,790
where to put the pegs,
321
00:15:13,790 --> 00:15:15,605
could be used
as a control mechanism
322
00:15:15,605 --> 00:15:16,882
in the weaving business.
323
00:15:18,681 --> 00:15:20,732
The Jacquard loom
was the result of all that,
324
00:15:21,131 --> 00:15:23,582
and the Paisley designs
it was capable of producing.
325
00:15:24,987 --> 00:15:27,871
But the zaniest of all these
influences for change,
326
00:15:27,871 --> 00:15:30,249
comes about when you've got
all your inventors
327
00:15:30,249 --> 00:15:32,821
beavering away towards a goal
that they've set themselves.
328
00:15:33,069 --> 00:15:35,420
When suddenly, whoops,
they come up with something
329
00:15:35,420 --> 00:15:36,195
they didn't expect.
330
00:15:36,794 --> 00:15:38,064
Now, that happens
again and again.
331
00:15:38,844 --> 00:15:42,067
Like it happened in the case
of the young William Perkin,
332
00:15:42,067 --> 00:15:44,871
who lived in London,
in the middle of the 19th century.
333
00:15:45,665 --> 00:15:47,659
He was trying to make
quinine artificially
334
00:15:47,659 --> 00:15:51,128
to replace natural quinine
that came from cinchona plants.
335
00:15:54,129 --> 00:15:55,929
Well, the muck he produced
wasn't quinine,
336
00:15:55,929 --> 00:15:57,623
so he threw it away
into some water,
337
00:15:57,623 --> 00:15:59,767
and discovered he'd
accidentally invented
338
00:15:59,767 --> 00:16:01,217
the first artificial dye.
339
00:16:01,496 --> 00:16:03,464
It was suddenly,
a colorful world.
340
00:16:05,150 --> 00:16:07,271
And, that's why you can paint
your house any color you like,
341
00:16:07,271 --> 00:16:08,415
even brilliant white.
342
00:16:09,001 --> 00:16:11,021
So, you see how
everything around you
343
00:16:11,021 --> 00:16:13,802
is a clue to why things
ended up the way they did.
344
00:16:14,533 --> 00:16:17,014
Your house is full of secrets
from the past,
345
00:16:17,372 --> 00:16:18,364
that rule your life.
346
00:16:35,134 --> 00:16:39,307
So, we have a number of ways
in which change comes about
347
00:16:39,307 --> 00:16:41,395
that seems to occur regularly.
348
00:16:41,678 --> 00:16:44,715
The effects of war,
religion, accident,
349
00:16:44,715 --> 00:16:47,078
the environment,
deliberate search,
350
00:16:48,073 --> 00:16:50,628
surprise use of one thing
in another field,
351
00:16:50,788 --> 00:16:53,359
and looking for one thing,
and ending up with another.
352
00:16:54,421 --> 00:16:56,271
Now, these influences
I'm talking about,
353
00:16:56,271 --> 00:16:57,858
are not just part of
the dead and gone.
354
00:16:57,858 --> 00:16:59,564
They're still here;
they still operate,
355
00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:03,032
like if Fleming hadn't let
his stuff go moldy,
356
00:17:03,032 --> 00:17:04,266
we wouldn't have penicillin.
357
00:17:04,742 --> 00:17:07,104
Apollo went to the Moon,
and we have miniature
358
00:17:07,104 --> 00:17:09,685
heart pacemakers
and teflon frying pans.
359
00:17:10,385 --> 00:17:12,028
But we only know
about these things
360
00:17:12,028 --> 00:17:13,715
because they've
already happened.
361
00:17:13,941 --> 00:17:16,517
So, does knowing that,
help?
362
00:17:17,278 --> 00:17:19,805
Armed with this knowledge
that change comes about
363
00:17:19,805 --> 00:17:22,036
because of influences
that may still be at work,
364
00:17:22,036 --> 00:17:23,173
does that mean
we can say,
365
00:17:23,173 --> 00:17:25,501
"right, of all the potential
triggers around me,
366
00:17:25,501 --> 00:17:27,359
I can identify that one
as the biggie,
367
00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:29,113
that's going to be
the one that matters?"
368
00:17:29,940 --> 00:17:30,825
Of course, we can't.
369
00:17:31,633 --> 00:17:34,870
I mean, for a start,
half the work is going on
370
00:17:34,870 --> 00:17:37,399
in the backroom of some
giant research laboratory,
371
00:17:37,834 --> 00:17:40,455
or change is going to come about
because right now,
372
00:17:40,455 --> 00:17:42,379
perhaps, somebody is looking
at a computer printout,
373
00:17:42,379 --> 00:17:45,260
and on the basis on what
the computer tells him,
374
00:17:45,260 --> 00:17:47,918
maybe planning to knock
your house down or something.
375
00:17:47,986 --> 00:17:49,942
So, it may be that the thing,
whatever it is,
376
00:17:49,942 --> 00:17:51,600
is just inaccessible to you.
377
00:17:52,825 --> 00:17:54,566
And even if it weren't,
even if you fell in it,
378
00:17:55,241 --> 00:17:57,007
how could you say anything
about how it was
379
00:17:57,007 --> 00:18:00,080
going to be used tomorrow,
if it was on the verge of
380
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,727
being used in a way that you
couldn't possibly dream of?
381
00:18:05,396 --> 00:18:06,891
Suppose, for instance,
you'd come across
382
00:18:06,891 --> 00:18:08,850
Volta's electric pistol
in the 18th century,
383
00:18:08,850 --> 00:18:10,267
what would you
have made of it?
384
00:18:10,984 --> 00:18:12,685
An electric spark jumps
across the gap
385
00:18:12,685 --> 00:18:13,766
between those two wires,
386
00:18:13,980 --> 00:18:16,056
and causes gases inside
to explode.
387
00:18:16,306 --> 00:18:18,427
It was supposed to tell you
whether or not air was healthy.
388
00:18:19,211 --> 00:18:20,965
How could you
ever have foreseen
389
00:18:21,374 --> 00:18:24,095
that it would end up
as a spark plug in a car;
390
00:18:24,399 --> 00:18:26,767
in there with all the other
unforeseeable bits.
391
00:18:27,037 --> 00:18:28,931
The block that began life
as Newcomen's
392
00:18:28,931 --> 00:18:31,764
mine draining pump,
or the carburetor
393
00:18:31,764 --> 00:18:33,576
that uses the system
for atomizing fuel,
394
00:18:33,576 --> 00:18:35,366
that started life
as a scent spray,
395
00:18:35,366 --> 00:18:38,263
or the gearing system
that began as a waterwheel.
396
00:18:38,509 --> 00:18:42,310
The whole lot comes together,
just like a jigsaw.
397
00:18:42,625 --> 00:18:44,405
and that's one of
the general things
398
00:18:44,405 --> 00:18:46,086
that you can say about
how difficult it is
399
00:18:46,086 --> 00:18:47,764
to second-guess
trends in invention.
400
00:18:51,323 --> 00:18:55,922
Because with the jigsaw -
if you haven't got all the bits,
401
00:18:55,922 --> 00:18:57,271
you don't know
what the picture is.
402
00:19:02,298 --> 00:19:05,033
The other general thing
to be said about how
403
00:19:05,033 --> 00:19:07,237
change comes about
through innovation,
404
00:19:07,237 --> 00:19:10,670
and especially about the rate
at which that change occurs,
405
00:19:11,151 --> 00:19:14,228
is that the easier
you can communicate,
406
00:19:14,228 --> 00:19:15,880
the faster change happens.
407
00:19:16,163 --> 00:19:18,879
I mean, if you look back
at the past in that light,
408
00:19:18,879 --> 00:19:20,957
you see that there was a great
surge of invention
409
00:19:20,957 --> 00:19:23,468
in the european middle ages,
410
00:19:23,991 --> 00:19:26,667
as soon as they had
re-established safe communication
411
00:19:26,667 --> 00:19:29,086
between their cities
after the so-called dark ages.
412
00:19:30,061 --> 00:19:33,248
There was another one
in the 16th century,
413
00:19:33,248 --> 00:19:37,187
when these gave scientists
and engineers the opportunity
414
00:19:37,187 --> 00:19:39,048
to share their knowledge
with each other.
415
00:19:39,350 --> 00:19:41,979
Thanks to a german goldsmith
called Johannes Gutenberg
416
00:19:41,979 --> 00:19:44,648
who'd invented printing,
back in the 1450s.
417
00:19:46,810 --> 00:19:49,483
And then, when that
developed out there,
418
00:19:49,483 --> 00:19:52,269
telecommunications;
oh, hundred odd years ago,
419
00:19:52,269 --> 00:19:53,911
then things really
started to move.
420
00:19:54,232 --> 00:19:57,889
It was with that second surge,
in the 16th century,
421
00:19:57,889 --> 00:20:00,878
that we moved into the era
of specialization.
422
00:20:01,102 --> 00:20:03,433
People writing about
technical subjects
423
00:20:03,433 --> 00:20:06,246
in a way that only other
scientists would understand.
424
00:20:06,795 --> 00:20:10,532
And, as their knowledge grew,
so did their need
425
00:20:10,532 --> 00:20:13,238
for specialist words
to describe that knowledge.
426
00:20:14,375 --> 00:20:17,480
If there's a gulf today,
between the man in the street
427
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:19,442
and the scientists
and the technologists
428
00:20:19,442 --> 00:20:22,905
who changed his world everyday,
that's where it comes from.
429
00:20:23,984 --> 00:20:25,324
It was inevitable;
430
00:20:25,574 --> 00:20:27,331
everyday language
was inadequate.
431
00:20:27,987 --> 00:20:31,072
I mean, you're a doctor;
how do you operate on somebody
432
00:20:31,072 --> 00:20:33,206
when the best description
of his condition
433
00:20:33,206 --> 00:20:35,712
you have is,
a funny feeling in the stomach.
434
00:20:36,751 --> 00:20:39,201
The medical profession
talks mumbo jumbo,
435
00:20:39,696 --> 00:20:42,472
because it needs to be exact;
or would you rather be dead.
436
00:20:42,858 --> 00:20:44,934
And that's only a very
obvious example.
437
00:20:45,648 --> 00:20:47,869
Trouble is, when I'm being
cured of something,
438
00:20:47,869 --> 00:20:49,381
I don't care
if I don't understand.
439
00:20:50,017 --> 00:20:51,460
But, what happens
when I do care?
440
00:20:51,757 --> 00:20:53,938
When say, the people
we vote for,
441
00:20:53,938 --> 00:20:56,664
are making decisions
that affect our lives deeply.
442
00:20:57,005 --> 00:20:58,755
Because that is after all,
when we get our say,
443
00:20:58,755 --> 00:21:00,150
isn't it,
when we vote?
444
00:21:01,368 --> 00:21:03,117
But say, the issue relates
to a bit of science
445
00:21:03,117 --> 00:21:04,697
and technology,
we don't understand.
446
00:21:04,989 --> 00:21:08,379
Like, how safe is a reactor
somebody wants to build?
447
00:21:08,379 --> 00:21:11,088
Or, should we make
supersonic airliners?
448
00:21:11,758 --> 00:21:13,509
Then, in the absence
of knowledge,
449
00:21:14,096 --> 00:21:16,406
what is it to appeal to,
except our emotions.
450
00:21:16,727 --> 00:21:20,459
And then, the issue becomes
national prestige, or good for jobs,
451
00:21:20,459 --> 00:21:23,090
or defense of our way of life,
or something.
452
00:21:23,410 --> 00:21:26,456
And suddenly, you're not voting
for the real issue at all.
453
00:21:28,090 --> 00:21:30,552
I was involved in a perfect
example of that.
454
00:21:30,552 --> 00:21:33,102
here, at Cape Canaveral,
back in the late 60s,
455
00:21:33,102 --> 00:21:34,917
when i was covering
the Apollo missions.
456
00:21:44,255 --> 00:21:47,289
If there was ever a piece
of technology that appealed
457
00:21:47,289 --> 00:21:49,653
to the emotions,
it was the Saturn V
458
00:21:49,653 --> 00:21:52,293
lifting off on that
July morning in 1969,
459
00:21:52,293 --> 00:21:55,346
heading for the moon;
remember?
460
00:21:56,802 --> 00:21:58,375
I'm as emotional as anybody else.
461
00:21:58,737 --> 00:21:59,733
I won't forget it.
462
00:22:01,710 --> 00:22:05,737
(rocket blasting off)
463
00:22:48,718 --> 00:22:51,825
Trouble was, that thing took
off as much on euphoria
464
00:22:51,825 --> 00:22:54,528
as on rocket fuel,
because the public understood it
465
00:22:54,528 --> 00:22:55,561
as a great adventure.
466
00:22:56,509 --> 00:22:58,346
And how many great adventures
are you going to pay for,
467
00:22:58,346 --> 00:23:00,070
when the plot's
the same every time?
468
00:23:00,771 --> 00:23:04,659
So the taxpayer lost interest,
and Apollo became this.
469
00:23:15,487 --> 00:23:17,710
And, before you say,
"good, waste of money";
470
00:23:18,539 --> 00:23:20,532
in the same period,
american women
471
00:23:20,532 --> 00:23:22,773
spent the same amount of money
on cosmetics.
472
00:23:24,733 --> 00:23:27,037
It was lack of understanding,
and the scientific reason
473
00:23:27,037 --> 00:23:28,332
behind Apollo, that killed it.
474
00:23:28,589 --> 00:23:31,322
That, and the desire
we all seemed
475
00:23:31,322 --> 00:23:32,853
to have developed
for novelty.
476
00:23:34,022 --> 00:23:35,866
That's one of the effects of
living with a high rate
477
00:23:35,866 --> 00:23:38,112
of change like we do;
that desire for novelty.
478
00:23:38,366 --> 00:23:43,309
But, it carries a price:
more novelty, less understanding.
479
00:23:44,476 --> 00:23:45,795
More wrong attitudes
towards things;
480
00:23:45,795 --> 00:23:46,860
like what happened here.
481
00:23:48,249 --> 00:23:49,992
We've arrived at a point
where, somebody said;
482
00:23:49,992 --> 00:23:52,373
if you understand something today,
it must be obsolete.
483
00:23:52,583 --> 00:23:56,247
And that puts us in various
kinds of cleft stick.
484
00:23:57,169 --> 00:23:59,603
On the one hand,
a rate of change so high,
485
00:23:59,603 --> 00:24:00,834
nobody
can keep up with it.
486
00:24:01,053 --> 00:24:04,860
And on the other, industry
geared to high turnover,
487
00:24:04,860 --> 00:24:06,532
novelty planned
obsolescence,
488
00:24:06,532 --> 00:24:09,734
so that if you stop making
the new models every year,
489
00:24:09,734 --> 00:24:12,162
and people hang on to the
old model they've always had,
490
00:24:12,613 --> 00:24:14,443
what happens to the jobs
of the people
491
00:24:14,443 --> 00:24:16,601
who used to make
the new model every year?
492
00:24:21,481 --> 00:24:25,039
Again, on the one hand, we have
a technological network
493
00:24:25,039 --> 00:24:28,206
that keeps us alive,
but, because every part
494
00:24:28,206 --> 00:24:30,555
of that network is interdependent
on every other part,
495
00:24:30,555 --> 00:24:32,711
it's vulnerable to failure
by one bit.
496
00:24:33,632 --> 00:24:39,048
That power station relay
blacked out northeastern
America in 1965.
497
00:24:40,871 --> 00:24:43,222
On the other hand, it's only
because that network exists
498
00:24:43,222 --> 00:24:45,551
that we can draw on power
and raw materials
499
00:24:45,551 --> 00:24:47,350
from other places,
when we need them,
500
00:24:47,350 --> 00:24:49,460
and keep our industries
going; whatever.
501
00:24:50,118 --> 00:24:54,734
And yet, those industries use up
precious raw materials
502
00:24:54,734 --> 00:24:57,542
and cause high levels
of pollution;
503
00:24:57,815 --> 00:24:59,074
unacceptable.
504
00:25:00,295 --> 00:25:02,461
Those are the very problems
that stimulate research
505
00:25:02,461 --> 00:25:07,558
into cleaner, safer,
more unlimited forms of energy
506
00:25:07,558 --> 00:25:09,878
that will benefit everybody
not just industry.
507
00:25:11,479 --> 00:25:14,282
And so, production line
style living grows,
508
00:25:14,656 --> 00:25:17,308
and with it the dissatisfaction
and the alienation
509
00:25:17,308 --> 00:25:18,535
that many people feel,
510
00:25:18,535 --> 00:25:23,530
in a world that gets
more instant, plastic; identical.
511
00:25:23,879 --> 00:25:25,919
And yet, it's only
in that kind of world
512
00:25:25,919 --> 00:25:28,786
that many people can have
things that they couldn't have
513
00:25:28,786 --> 00:25:29,994
if the world
wasn't like that.
514
00:25:30,261 --> 00:25:32,053
And, if you're one
of those have-nots now,
515
00:25:32,053 --> 00:25:34,432
that's just what
you want to happen.
516
00:25:34,713 --> 00:25:35,686
And, who could blame you?
517
00:25:36,488 --> 00:25:38,368
So it looks likely
that the rate of change
518
00:25:38,368 --> 00:25:39,986
is going to become
more confusing,
519
00:25:40,316 --> 00:25:42,446
as the avalanche of things
that make out lives
520
00:25:42,446 --> 00:25:45,346
more confortable,
more push-button, grows.
521
00:25:45,978 --> 00:25:47,935
But parallel with that increase
in the things
522
00:25:47,935 --> 00:25:52,497
that we can see around us,
goes as increase
in invisible innovations;
523
00:25:53,305 --> 00:25:54,143
in the things where you need
524
00:25:54,143 --> 00:25:55,915
a high degree of
specialized knowledge,
525
00:25:55,915 --> 00:25:57,589
just to begin to
understand them.
526
00:25:57,589 --> 00:26:01,041
Areas like genetic engineering,
radioactive fuel,
527
00:26:01,041 --> 00:26:03,376
new drugs, better poisons.
528
00:26:03,671 --> 00:26:05,743
Areas that are likely to have
a more profound effect
529
00:26:05,743 --> 00:26:09,257
on our future
than a super squeezy
bottle of detergent.
530
00:26:09,544 --> 00:26:13,464
And it's in those area
that the man in the street
feels most impotent.
531
00:26:13,464 --> 00:26:15,986
He knows they're going on,
but he doesn't know enough
532
00:26:15,986 --> 00:26:19,165
to get in there, and help
with the decisions
that they demand.
533
00:26:20,110 --> 00:26:23,060
So, is it a case that
'never have so many people
534
00:26:23,060 --> 00:26:25,450
understood so little,
about so much'.
535
00:26:36,996 --> 00:26:38,572
Or maybe I'm wrong;
536
00:26:38,896 --> 00:26:41,291
maybe when you see
something like THIS:
537
00:26:41,291 --> 00:26:43,353
the good old corny example
538
00:26:43,388 --> 00:26:46,180
of the nuclear power station,
and how incomprehensible
539
00:26:46,180 --> 00:26:48,031
it all is,
you just don't care.
540
00:26:48,307 --> 00:26:50,779
You say, why should
I have an opinion
541
00:26:50,779 --> 00:26:54,239
about reactor safety,
when half the engineers argue
542
00:26:54,239 --> 00:26:56,389
with the other half
about what
the word 'safety' means.
543
00:26:56,697 --> 00:26:58,404
And anyway, they'll
sort it out themselves.
544
00:26:58,404 --> 00:27:01,619
As long as I get electricity
out of the wall when I want it,
545
00:27:01,619 --> 00:27:03,665
don't bother me
about where it comes from.
546
00:27:03,946 --> 00:27:08,075
Let the eggheads
handle the problems
of science and technology.
547
00:27:08,362 --> 00:27:10,546
I've got enough on my plate
between when I get up
in the morning,
548
00:27:10,546 --> 00:27:12,882
and when I go to bed at night,
without having any worry
549
00:27:12,882 --> 00:27:14,639
about science and technology.
550
00:27:15,025 --> 00:27:20,659
Well, it that turns you on;
but you're in the bind,
551
00:27:20,659 --> 00:27:21,784
whether you like it
or not.
552
00:27:22,626 --> 00:27:25,403
Technology is a life-support
system.
553
00:27:25,403 --> 00:27:28,129
It puts the food
on your supermarket shelves,
554
00:27:28,129 --> 00:27:33,054
runs the systems in your home,
created jobs and gets rid of them.
555
00:27:33,430 --> 00:27:36,537
Cures you when you're sick,
gets you to work,
556
00:27:36,537 --> 00:27:38,199
runs the water supplies.
557
00:27:38,468 --> 00:27:42,261
Sooner or later, all that
high-level technology stuff
558
00:27:42,261 --> 00:27:44,042
filters down to everybody.
559
00:27:44,773 --> 00:27:47,728
And that's why,
what we do with science
560
00:27:47,728 --> 00:27:49,672
and invention next,
matters so much.
561
00:27:50,044 --> 00:27:53,013
And, over recent years,
people are becoming
562
00:27:53,013 --> 00:27:54,586
increasingly
concerned about that;
563
00:27:54,586 --> 00:27:56,998
maybe because technology
is producing problems
564
00:27:56,998 --> 00:27:59,210
that can no longer
be solved as easily,
565
00:27:59,676 --> 00:28:03,204
or because the technological
network is now so wide
566
00:28:03,204 --> 00:28:06,078
that we're vulnerable to
the smallest kind of failure;
567
00:28:06,078 --> 00:28:07,898
like a frost in Brazil.
568
00:28:08,236 --> 00:28:10,251
And suddenly, coffee
is to expensive to drink.
569
00:28:11,475 --> 00:28:13,442
And things aren't as simple
as they used to be.
570
00:28:13,722 --> 00:28:16,082
Back in the old days,
when there was no third world,
571
00:28:16,082 --> 00:28:19,606
you wanted something,
you took it; not any more.
572
00:28:20,507 --> 00:28:22,071
You have to earn the money
to pay for it now.
573
00:28:23,460 --> 00:28:26,461
And, once upon a time,
the future was just
onwards and upwards.
574
00:28:27,293 --> 00:28:31,320
Now, we don't even know
if we can go on expecting
a rising standard of living.
575
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:38,924
And more and more, at the heart
of questions and problems
like that, is technology.
576
00:28:40,082 --> 00:28:42,144
And, what places like this
will do for us.
577
00:28:48,552 --> 00:28:52,028
Attitudes to what we ought
to be doing about science
and technology,
578
00:28:52,028 --> 00:28:56,929
and our future,
seemed to fall into
about four main types
579
00:28:58,593 --> 00:29:02,357
One says: what we should do
is stop dead;
580
00:29:03,347 --> 00:29:06,431
stop the pollution,
stop the destruction of the
environment, and the rest.
581
00:29:06,764 --> 00:29:10,416
Stop constructing vast
mass production units
582
00:29:10,416 --> 00:29:12,089
that are so big,
they can't adapt to change
583
00:29:12,089 --> 00:29:17,040
and turn into dinosaurus,
that you either have to pay
through the nose for,
584
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:21,586
or close, and give yourself
a dose of high unemployment.
585
00:29:23,644 --> 00:29:26,142
What we should be doing,
says this point of view,
586
00:29:26,876 --> 00:29:29,346
is going for alternative
sources of energy,
587
00:29:29,346 --> 00:29:32,041
so we don't need dangerous
places like these.
588
00:29:32,041 --> 00:29:36,623
They - the ponds that you store
spent radioactive fuel in.
589
00:29:37,473 --> 00:29:40,639
Sources of energy like
power from the sun,
590
00:29:40,639 --> 00:29:43,477
or the tides,
or the waves.
591
00:29:44,439 --> 00:29:49,264
And, that we should be breaking
up large-scale technology
into small units;
592
00:29:49,673 --> 00:29:52,269
so that we can solve
the problems of the cities,
593
00:29:52,269 --> 00:29:53,762
be leaving the cities.
594
00:29:54,122 --> 00:29:56,524
In other word,
option one:
595
00:29:57,207 --> 00:30:00,312
scrape advanced technology,
and then go rural.
596
00:30:01,249 --> 00:30:05,315
There, there'd be no gulf
between the technologists
and the man in the street,
597
00:30:05,315 --> 00:30:06,640
because the'd all be
living together.
598
00:30:06,944 --> 00:30:09,830
And besides, the technologists
would no longer be working
599
00:30:09,830 --> 00:30:12,387
on changing his life everyday.
600
00:30:14,027 --> 00:30:16,405
The difficulty
with that point of view
601
00:30:16,405 --> 00:30:19,002
is it too late,
already?
602
00:30:19,717 --> 00:30:22,177
Are we too hooked
on technology, to let go?
603
00:30:23,009 --> 00:30:26,050
If you pull the plug out,
will the patient die?
604
00:30:27,416 --> 00:30:29,928
Are there just
too many people alive,
605
00:30:29,928 --> 00:30:32,045
for the simple life
to support?
606
00:30:32,874 --> 00:30:37,431
So, can we afford to do
without that kind of power,
607
00:30:37,431 --> 00:30:40,074
and everything that it implies?
608
00:30:49,316 --> 00:30:50,381
Another point of view,
609
00:30:50,381 --> 00:30:53,015
often aimed directly
at place like this,
610
00:30:53,015 --> 00:30:56,297
says make up your mind
what you what science
611
00:30:56,297 --> 00:30:57,664
and technology to do for you.
612
00:30:58,276 --> 00:31:01,007
Permit research and development
only in those areas,
613
00:31:01,007 --> 00:31:02,809
and dump the rest.
614
00:31:03,816 --> 00:31:09,673
So, if a place like
this nuclear power station
control room is considered to,
615
00:31:09,673 --> 00:31:13,408
let's say, represent a threat
to all of us, close it.
616
00:31:14,207 --> 00:31:18,372
And apply that rule
to any part of technology
617
00:31:18,372 --> 00:31:21,429
that is considered to be
socially undesirable.
618
00:31:22,329 --> 00:31:25,408
Now, if you do that,
you can then divert
619
00:31:25,408 --> 00:31:27,045
the brainpower
that you've released,
620
00:31:27,045 --> 00:31:30,727
into attempting to solve
the real problems;
621
00:31:31,091 --> 00:31:36,671
like starvation,
or iliteracy, or disease.
622
00:31:36,969 --> 00:31:41,032
So, option two:
select what your priorities are,
623
00:31:41,032 --> 00:31:42,602
and stick to them.
624
00:31:43,876 --> 00:31:45,374
The trouble is,
it's not that simple.
625
00:31:45,914 --> 00:31:51,269
For a start, who decides
what is socially desirable
and what isn't?
626
00:31:51,269 --> 00:31:53,437
You?
Me?
627
00:31:54,279 --> 00:31:56,966
And, on what basis?
Gut reaction?
628
00:31:57,792 --> 00:32:00,526
That's all I've got to go on,
if I don't understand something.
629
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:04,276
Gut reaction;
and it's almost always
dangerously wrong.
630
00:32:05,344 --> 00:32:07,648
And then what do you
lose when you say,
631
00:32:07,648 --> 00:32:09,837
stop work on this, or that?
632
00:32:10,636 --> 00:32:13,510
How do you know what you're
denying yourself tomorrow,
633
00:32:13,510 --> 00:32:15,529
by what you throw away today?
634
00:32:16,617 --> 00:32:18,031
Look at the number of things
that you've seen
635
00:32:18,031 --> 00:32:19,748
in this series that would
never have happened
636
00:32:19,748 --> 00:32:21,166
if people had done that.
637
00:32:22,249 --> 00:32:26,464
The difficulties is, that things
almost always start
638
00:32:26,464 --> 00:32:28,393
with some guys doing
something that,
639
00:32:28,393 --> 00:32:31,478
at the time,
looks totally useless.
640
00:32:35,187 --> 00:32:39,599
Then, there's the viewpoint
that says, drop all this
rat race stuff;
641
00:32:39,599 --> 00:32:41,342
making new things everyday.
642
00:32:41,736 --> 00:32:44,355
Why can we make a car
that will last,
643
00:32:44,355 --> 00:32:46,601
so that we can drive it
for 20 years?
644
00:32:46,601 --> 00:32:48,381
We've got the capability;
why don't we do it?
645
00:32:49,190 --> 00:32:51,744
Think of the market
that would provide;
646
00:32:51,744 --> 00:32:53,027
I mean, in the third world
alone.
647
00:32:53,027 --> 00:32:54,884
There'd be jobs
in industry forever,
648
00:32:54,884 --> 00:32:56,686
making enough goods
to do that.
649
00:32:57,034 --> 00:32:59,318
Just take somebody who has
a high standard of living
650
00:32:59,318 --> 00:33:01,701
and do what you can
to bring everybody
651
00:33:01,701 --> 00:33:03,307
up to his standard;
everybody.
652
00:33:03,604 --> 00:33:05,525
Not just here in this country;
everywhere.
653
00:33:06,521 --> 00:33:09,096
And, stop redesigning
things everyday.
654
00:33:09,096 --> 00:33:10,509
I mean, isn't this place
655
00:33:10,509 --> 00:33:12,838
a good enough
power station for anybody?
656
00:33:13,139 --> 00:33:16,849
We have more inventions
now than we will ever need;
657
00:33:16,849 --> 00:33:18,791
why make more?
658
00:33:19,556 --> 00:33:21,623
That then,
is option three:
659
00:33:22,039 --> 00:33:24,632
stop all further research
and development now;
660
00:33:25,369 --> 00:33:27,722
and share the knowledge
we already have.
661
00:33:28,925 --> 00:33:31,234
Well, it sounds like
a good idea, doesn't it?
662
00:33:31,654 --> 00:33:33,612
Spread the wealth,
and the knowledge,
663
00:33:33,612 --> 00:33:35,464
and the goods
around everybody.
664
00:33:36,187 --> 00:33:39,586
Very laudable;
who's going to pay for it?
665
00:33:40,497 --> 00:33:42,459
And how would you react
if somebody came up to you
666
00:33:42,459 --> 00:33:44,918
and said,
that's enough, no more.
667
00:33:45,243 --> 00:33:48,201
How would you persuade
people who have,
668
00:33:48,201 --> 00:33:50,099
that they have enough?
669
00:33:50,399 --> 00:33:51,927
And then, they're not
going to get anymore,
670
00:33:51,927 --> 00:33:53,094
no matter
how hard they work.
671
00:33:54,325 --> 00:33:55,925
How long would you go on
voting for somebody
672
00:33:55,925 --> 00:33:57,831
who came
with that idea, mmm?
673
00:34:00,263 --> 00:34:03,606
I suppose the - the attitude
of the vast majority of people is;
674
00:34:04,042 --> 00:34:05,645
what's the hurry
to do anything at all?
675
00:34:06,450 --> 00:34:08,036
Most people have a job
676
00:34:08,036 --> 00:34:10,897
that gives them money
and time off to enjoy it;
677
00:34:11,220 --> 00:34:13,276
take the kids to the country,
relax.
678
00:34:13,657 --> 00:34:15,142
What's wrong
with the way things are?
679
00:34:16,332 --> 00:34:18,588
I mean, technology
may have caused problems,
680
00:34:18,588 --> 00:34:20,447
but it's always solved them,
hasn't it?
681
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:22,778
We are healthier
and better off,
682
00:34:22,778 --> 00:34:24,651
and better dressed
and cleverer,
683
00:34:24,651 --> 00:34:26,744
and having more fun
than anybody in history.
684
00:34:27,062 --> 00:34:29,531
And it's been good old
inventive genius
685
00:34:29,531 --> 00:34:30,300
that's given us all this.
686
00:34:30,300 --> 00:34:31,676
So let's have more
on the same.
687
00:34:32,373 --> 00:34:34,431
Tomorrow has always been
better than today.
688
00:34:34,721 --> 00:34:37,647
Why should things suddenly
be any different?
689
00:34:37,967 --> 00:34:40,790
So, the fourth
and the last option:
690
00:34:41,962 --> 00:34:44,584
keep going just the way
we always have.
691
00:34:45,472 --> 00:34:47,388
That's fine,
if you're prepared to put up
692
00:34:47,388 --> 00:34:49,290
with the rate of change
that will make today's
693
00:34:49,290 --> 00:34:52,243
break neck pace look like
a snail out for a walk.
694
00:34:52,513 --> 00:34:55,306
And, a world even more
interdependent that it is now.
695
00:34:55,591 --> 00:34:59,573
And, a level of specialization
even more incomprehensible
that it is now.
696
00:34:59,904 --> 00:35:03,777
And, a growing avalanche
of innovations, each one competing
697
00:35:03,777 --> 00:35:06,409
with the other for the steadily
shrinking amount of time
698
00:35:06,409 --> 00:35:08,209
that there will be, to make
decisions about them.
699
00:35:08,488 --> 00:35:09,889
And, a growing number
of bureaucrats,
700
00:35:09,889 --> 00:35:12,256
to process and handle
those decisions.
701
00:35:12,532 --> 00:35:16,897
And, outside this maelstorm,
this core of decision making;
702
00:35:16,897 --> 00:35:19,609
way outside,
cut off, the people
703
00:35:19,609 --> 00:35:21,077
who don't understand
what's going on.
704
00:35:21,343 --> 00:35:24,696
And, who wouldn't understand,
even if they got in to find out.
705
00:35:31,133 --> 00:35:33,970
Now, whichever of those four
options you go for,
706
00:35:33,970 --> 00:35:36,850
you're talking about making
some fairly complex
707
00:35:36,850 --> 00:35:39,404
technological decisions,
even if the option you choose,
708
00:35:39,404 --> 00:35:41,015
is to switch off
and go rural.
709
00:35:41,353 --> 00:35:43,112
And, as I hope
this series has shown,
710
00:35:43,112 --> 00:35:45,166
what you need to know
to make those decisions,
711
00:35:45,166 --> 00:35:46,895
is sometimes
very heavy stuff.
712
00:35:47,208 --> 00:35:49,348
Like, understanding
why it may soon be possible
713
00:35:49,348 --> 00:35:51,775
to power a city
the size of Los Angeles
714
00:35:51,775 --> 00:35:54,470
with a bucket of water;
thanks to fusion power.
715
00:35:55,643 --> 00:35:57,786
And, the nature of
what you need to know,
716
00:35:57,786 --> 00:35:59,437
in order to understand
what's going on around you,
717
00:35:59,437 --> 00:36:01,371
is very different
from what it was.
718
00:36:02,168 --> 00:36:04,866
In the middle ages
most of the changes
719
00:36:04,866 --> 00:36:08,936
were brough about
by THIS: water;
720
00:36:08,936 --> 00:36:10,017
and the use of a wheel,
721
00:36:10,017 --> 00:36:12,376
up at the mill,
to harness its power.
722
00:36:14,294 --> 00:36:15,880
Now, there was nothing
very mysterious
723
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:17,487
about the way
the whell worked.
724
00:36:17,827 --> 00:36:18,691
There were thoudands
of them.
725
00:36:18,691 --> 00:36:20,040
There one practically
in every village.
726
00:36:20,361 --> 00:36:23,815
The main use they were put to
was grinding flour for bread.
727
00:36:24,105 --> 00:36:25,756
And you only had to
put your hand
728
00:36:25,756 --> 00:36:29,815
into a fast flowing river to
feel the power source operating.
729
00:36:30,296 --> 00:36:32,381
[water mill sound]
730
00:36:34,193 --> 00:36:35,959
[steam engine]
731
00:36:38,363 --> 00:36:40,780
By the industrial revolution,
you have to understand
732
00:36:40,780 --> 00:36:42,720
how steam power worked,
and air pressure,
733
00:36:42,720 --> 00:36:44,831
and what mechanical engineering
was all about.
734
00:36:45,589 --> 00:36:47,815
And the rate of change
was accelerating.
735
00:36:48,134 --> 00:36:55,452
[train hooting]
736
00:37:00,991 --> 00:37:02,588
By the end
of the 19th century,
737
00:37:02,588 --> 00:37:04,246
things were
different again.
738
00:37:04,594 --> 00:37:06,905
Now, to undestand
why change occurred,
739
00:37:06,905 --> 00:37:09,190
you had to understand
the scientific theory;
740
00:37:09,190 --> 00:37:11,361
and especially the laws of
physics and chemistry.
741
00:37:11,793 --> 00:37:14,492
I'd like to show you how,
at various levels,
742
00:37:14,492 --> 00:37:17,068
if you don't understand
how those laws operate,
743
00:37:17,068 --> 00:37:21,252
then what they do,
is several times removed
from your comprehension.
744
00:37:21,521 --> 00:37:23,231
Like, take this
little deal here.
745
00:37:23,550 --> 00:37:25,184
What I'm going to do
is mix that liquid
746
00:37:25,184 --> 00:37:26,530
with that one:
clear.
747
00:37:26,816 --> 00:37:29,518
Let me be more exact,
and see if I lose you.
748
00:37:30,439 --> 00:37:32,415
What's going to happen
is going to happen
749
00:37:32,415 --> 00:37:36,568
because THAT is CuSO4,
and THAT is NaOH.
750
00:37:36,939 --> 00:37:38,572
That's when they lost me
when they explained it;
751
00:37:38,572 --> 00:37:39,247
how about you?
752
00:37:39,622 --> 00:37:42,189
Still, at least
we all know, don't we,
753
00:37:42,189 --> 00:37:43,769
that if you pour
two liquids together,
754
00:37:43,769 --> 00:37:45,342
they mix,
don't they?
755
00:37:50,612 --> 00:37:51,866
Not here,
they don't;
756
00:37:51,866 --> 00:37:54,957
one of then
turn into little spheres.
757
00:37:58,910 --> 00:38:01,232
Okay, you don't understand
the chemical formula,
758
00:38:01,232 --> 00:38:03,240
and the liquids aren't behaving
the way you expect them to,
759
00:38:03,240 --> 00:38:04,492
and it's all like
one of those tricks
760
00:38:04,492 --> 00:38:06,483
you got out of the children's
chemistry set.
761
00:38:06,830 --> 00:38:09,341
Except this trick
is being developed here,
762
00:38:09,341 --> 00:38:11,223
at Harwell, by the atomic
energy authority.
763
00:38:12,470 --> 00:38:14,668
That's why this machinery
exists here;
764
00:38:14,982 --> 00:38:17,488
to do that party trick,
to produce those little spheres.
765
00:38:18,321 --> 00:38:20,318
And there's no way
that you or I,
766
00:38:20,318 --> 00:38:22,723
or anybody outside this laboratory
could possibly know,
767
00:38:22,723 --> 00:38:25,132
what those little spheres
could be used for.
768
00:38:25,914 --> 00:38:28,080
Some of the things
I'm allowed to tell you.
769
00:38:29,115 --> 00:38:32,046
This will help produce
more efficient nuclear fuel.
770
00:38:34,084 --> 00:38:35,296
These will help find oil.
771
00:38:36,172 --> 00:38:37,484
These will put a drug
into your body,
772
00:38:37,484 --> 00:38:39,818
and allow it to act to
the minute the following day;
773
00:38:40,626 --> 00:38:42,290
and these will help
to find out
774
00:38:42,290 --> 00:38:44,895
if your blood vessels
are working properly or not.
775
00:38:45,631 --> 00:38:48,700
Gobbledygook; still, you can
at least see and touch
776
00:38:48,700 --> 00:38:51,192
these example of
advanced 19th century
777
00:38:51,192 --> 00:38:53,314
colloid chemistry;
that's what it's called.
778
00:38:53,703 --> 00:38:55,654
So you see how
the factors for change
779
00:38:55,654 --> 00:38:57,316
have become more
and more theoretical.
780
00:38:57,626 --> 00:39:00,515
And how, with the expense
and the long lead-time
781
00:39:00,515 --> 00:39:01,748
involved in research
and development
782
00:39:01,748 --> 00:39:03,675
of this kind of thing,
increasingly,
783
00:39:03,675 --> 00:39:05,412
the only kinds of people
who can afford to do it
784
00:39:05,412 --> 00:39:08,046
are government establishments
and universities
785
00:39:08,046 --> 00:39:09,072
and industrial giants.
786
00:39:09,391 --> 00:39:12,978
And most of the time,
new developments like this one
787
00:39:12,978 --> 00:39:14,305
have a value
in the marketplace.
788
00:39:14,581 --> 00:39:15,859
So if you make
the secret public,
789
00:39:15,859 --> 00:39:17,986
you loose the company
or the country,
790
00:39:17,986 --> 00:39:19,696
valuable money,
and jobs.
791
00:39:21,834 --> 00:39:23,384
So, how can the man
in the street
792
00:39:23,384 --> 00:39:24,989
ever get involved
in making decisions
793
00:39:24,989 --> 00:39:26,635
about something
that in one sense,
794
00:39:26,635 --> 00:39:29,535
it's against his own interests
to know about, too soon.
795
00:39:30,223 --> 00:39:32,910
But, if it turns out to be
something he doesn't want,
796
00:39:32,910 --> 00:39:35,751
at what point is it too late?
797
00:39:44,392 --> 00:39:45,851
And when you get
to where we're now,
798
00:39:45,851 --> 00:39:47,990
in the last quarter
of the 20th century,
799
00:39:47,990 --> 00:39:49,864
how do you begin
to get involved with this;
800
00:39:49,864 --> 00:39:50,594
the computer.
801
00:39:50,892 --> 00:39:51,876
There's nothing to see.
802
00:39:51,876 --> 00:39:54,154
Well, I suppose,
in one sense there is.
803
00:39:54,660 --> 00:39:57,614
Here, but so, I tell you
that these discs
804
00:39:57,614 --> 00:39:59,692
contain one hundred
million characters.
805
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:01,570
Where does that get you?
806
00:40:02,380 --> 00:40:05,277
Oh sure, at one level, we all
understand computers, don't we?
807
00:40:05,277 --> 00:40:06,651
They send us bills
and statements.
808
00:40:06,651 --> 00:40:08,592
And even this
awe-inspiring thing,
809
00:40:08,592 --> 00:40:10,017
the British Airways
computer;
810
00:40:10,017 --> 00:40:12,692
in 1978, one of the biggest
and fastest in the world,
811
00:40:12,692 --> 00:40:14,934
will do some very endearing
things for you.
812
00:40:14,934 --> 00:40:17,209
I mean, you can book
your old granny
813
00:40:17,209 --> 00:40:18,794
onto any flight
from anywhere to anywhere
814
00:40:18,794 --> 00:40:20,520
with all the trimmings,
that is.
815
00:40:23,130 --> 00:40:25,040
That's her,
and her flights and hotels.
816
00:40:25,494 --> 00:40:28,419
And this is her,
and her personal details.
817
00:40:28,419 --> 00:40:29,555
Look, she speaks
only italian.
818
00:40:29,555 --> 00:40:30,712
She is flying
for the first time.
819
00:40:30,712 --> 00:40:31,383
She doesn't like carrots.
820
00:40:31,383 --> 00:40:32,404
She wants help
when she gets there.
821
00:40:32,404 --> 00:40:33,783
She wants to sit
near the toilet,
822
00:40:33,783 --> 00:40:34,536
and not see the film.
823
00:40:34,536 --> 00:40:36,038
She's got excess baggage
and a lot more.
824
00:40:36,418 --> 00:40:38,076
And this friendly monster
would do that for you,
825
00:40:38,076 --> 00:40:40,226
for a flight, anytime
up to a year in the future,
826
00:40:40,226 --> 00:40:43,142
and prepare your bill
within 50th of a second.
827
00:40:43,884 --> 00:40:45,894
Great,
that's the kind of assistance
828
00:40:45,894 --> 00:40:47,784
computers give us
that help the world go around.
829
00:40:48,058 --> 00:40:50,439
And you get involved;
you pay.
830
00:40:52,975 --> 00:40:55,328
But that's not the side
of the computer i'm talking about.
831
00:40:56,266 --> 00:40:58,784
If part one of the
specialization of knowledge
832
00:40:58,784 --> 00:41:01,392
happened in the 15th century
when Johannes Gutenberg
833
00:41:01,392 --> 00:41:04,719
came up with the printing press
and helped scientists to talk
834
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:05,933
their own kind of Gibberish
to each other,
835
00:41:05,933 --> 00:41:08,989
on the printed page, easier that
they'd ever done it before.
836
00:41:11,196 --> 00:41:12,657
Then,
this is part two.
837
00:41:12,657 --> 00:41:14,729
Only this is no book
that you can leaf through
838
00:41:14,729 --> 00:41:16,172
and get a rough idea
what it's talking about.
839
00:41:16,502 --> 00:41:19,711
This is the future,
because if you tell
840
00:41:19,711 --> 00:41:21,413
a computer everything
you know about something,
841
00:41:21,413 --> 00:41:23,853
it would juggle the mix,
and come up with a prediction.
842
00:41:23,853 --> 00:41:25,508
Do this,
and you'll get that.
843
00:41:25,805 --> 00:41:27,949
and if you have information
and a computer,
844
00:41:27,949 --> 00:41:29,522
you too can look
into the future.
845
00:41:29,522 --> 00:41:32,320
And that is power;
commercial power,
846
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:34,437
political power,
power to change things.
847
00:41:34,437 --> 00:41:36,830
You want some of that power,
easy;
848
00:41:36,830 --> 00:41:38,401
go get yourself a PhD.
849
00:41:38,833 --> 00:41:41,822
Otherwise,
the way things had become,
forget it.
850
00:41:41,822 --> 00:41:43,787
And there's no point in
coming in here and saying,
851
00:41:43,787 --> 00:41:44,851
show me, show me;
look.
852
00:41:50,017 --> 00:41:50,804
So what?
853
00:41:51,486 --> 00:41:52,678
Me too.
854
00:41:55,271 --> 00:41:56,641
But, never mind
the machinery.
855
00:41:57,034 --> 00:41:59,004
What about the stuff
this lock uses?
856
00:41:59,917 --> 00:42:02,670
The raw material
that will change our futures
857
00:42:02,670 --> 00:42:03,808
like you
would never believe;
858
00:42:03,808 --> 00:42:07,060
information, not the fact;
it'd too late for that.
859
00:42:07,060 --> 00:42:08,454
What you do
with the facts.
860
00:42:08,454 --> 00:42:11,813
Because there, you're into
probability theory,
861
00:42:11,813 --> 00:42:13,621
choosing one of
the alternate futures,
862
00:42:13,621 --> 00:42:14,835
and actually
making it happen.
863
00:42:15,309 --> 00:42:16,969
And how does the man
in the street
864
00:42:16,969 --> 00:42:18,522
get involved in that game.
865
00:42:19,313 --> 00:42:22,604
He doesn't, so when
the next major change
866
00:42:22,604 --> 00:42:24,963
comes out of the computers
double-checked
867
00:42:24,963 --> 00:42:27,124
and pre-packaged,
it looks increasingly
868
00:42:27,124 --> 00:42:29,636
like you've only got
two options open to you.
869
00:42:29,988 --> 00:42:31,646
One: do nothing.
870
00:42:31,646 --> 00:42:32,935
Stick your thumb
in your mouth
871
00:42:32,935 --> 00:42:33,923
and switch
your mind to neutral.
872
00:42:34,318 --> 00:42:37,245
Two: do what people
have done for centuries,
873
00:42:37,245 --> 00:42:39,355
when machines did things
they didn't want.
874
00:42:39,355 --> 00:42:40,910
overreact,
strikeout,
875
00:42:40,910 --> 00:42:42,501
sabotage the machine
for good.
876
00:42:42,501 --> 00:42:43,980
You want that?
877
00:43:07,251 --> 00:43:09,280
But once you start,
can you stop?,
878
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:11,538
Isn't our technology
so interconnected
879
00:43:11,538 --> 00:43:12,946
that when you destroy
one machine,
880
00:43:12,946 --> 00:43:15,134
you automatically trigger
total destruction
881
00:43:15,134 --> 00:43:16,864
of the entire
life-support system.
882
00:44:07,274 --> 00:44:09,795
Well, that's no
better a solution
883
00:44:09,795 --> 00:44:11,194
than any of the others,
is it?
884
00:44:12,724 --> 00:44:14,588
So, in the end,
885
00:44:14,588 --> 00:44:17,831
have we learned anything
from this look
886
00:44:17,831 --> 00:44:20,443
at why the world
turned out the way it did,
887
00:44:20,443 --> 00:44:22,613
that's of any use to us
in our future?
888
00:44:23,925 --> 00:44:28,963
Something, i think,
that the key to why
889
00:44:28,963 --> 00:44:31,786
things change,
is the key to everything.
890
00:44:32,161 --> 00:44:35,585
How easy is it
for knowledge to spread?
891
00:44:36,730 --> 00:44:38,681
and that,
in the past,
892
00:44:38,681 --> 00:44:40,814
the people
who made change happen,
893
00:44:40,814 --> 00:44:42,657
were the people
who had that knowledge,
894
00:44:42,657 --> 00:44:45,926
whether they were
craftsmen or kings.
895
00:44:47,081 --> 00:44:50,784
Today, the people
who make things change,
896
00:44:50,784 --> 00:44:52,235
the people
who have that knowledge,
897
00:44:52,235 --> 00:44:55,619
are the scientists
and the technologists,
898
00:44:55,619 --> 00:44:58,202
who're the true
driving force of humanity.
899
00:44:58,202 --> 00:45:00,692
And before you say,
what about the Beethovens,
900
00:45:00,692 --> 00:45:04,332
the Michelangelos,
let me suggest something
901
00:45:04,332 --> 00:45:05,957
with which you may
disagree violently.
902
00:45:06,685 --> 00:45:08,301
That at best;
903
00:45:08,301 --> 00:45:10,567
the products of
human emotion,
904
00:45:10,567 --> 00:45:14,268
art, philosophy, politics,
music, literature;
905
00:45:14,731 --> 00:45:17,661
are interpretations
of the world
906
00:45:17,661 --> 00:45:20,234
that tell you more about
the guy who's talking,
907
00:45:20,234 --> 00:45:22,412
than about the world
he's talking about.
908
00:45:23,889 --> 00:45:25,733
Secondhand views
of the world;
909
00:45:25,733 --> 00:45:30,569
made third hand by
your interpretation of them.
910
00:45:30,916 --> 00:45:34,493
Things like that,
as opposed to this.
911
00:45:34,493 --> 00:45:35,863
Know what it is?
912
00:45:36,385 --> 00:45:38,622
It's a bunch of
amino acids,
913
00:45:38,622 --> 00:45:41,654
The stuff that goes to
build up a worm,
914
00:45:41,654 --> 00:45:44,638
or a geranium, or you.
915
00:45:45,892 --> 00:45:47,355
This stuff's
easier to take, isn't it?
916
00:45:47,758 --> 00:45:50,118
Understandable;
got people in it.
917
00:45:50,567 --> 00:45:55,336
THIS scientific knowledge
is hard to take,
918
00:45:55,336 --> 00:45:58,385
because it removes
the reassuring crutches
919
00:45:58,385 --> 00:45:59,798
of opinion, ideology,
920
00:46:00,619 --> 00:46:03,498
and leaves only what is
demonstratably true
921
00:46:03,498 --> 00:46:04,318
about the world.
922
00:46:06,325 --> 00:46:09,523
And the reason why so many
people may be thinking
923
00:46:09,523 --> 00:46:11,239
about throwing away
those crutches,
924
00:46:11,813 --> 00:46:14,644
is because thanks to
science and technology,
925
00:46:14,644 --> 00:46:19,174
they have begun to know
that they don't know so much.
926
00:46:19,487 --> 00:46:23,245
And that, if they're to have more
say in what happens to their lives,
927
00:46:23,245 --> 00:46:26,646
more freedom to develop
their abilities to the full,
928
00:46:26,646 --> 00:46:28,056
they have to be helped
929
00:46:28,056 --> 00:46:30,261
towards that knowledge
that they know exists,
930
00:46:30,261 --> 00:46:31,849
and that they
don't possess.
931
00:46:32,737 --> 00:46:35,622
And by help towards that knowledge,
I don't mean,
932
00:46:35,622 --> 00:46:38,317
give everybody a computer
and say,
help yourself.
933
00:46:38,702 --> 00:46:39,976
Where would you
even start?
934
00:46:41,009 --> 00:46:45,346
No; I means trying to find ways
to translate the knowledge,
935
00:46:45,346 --> 00:46:47,986
to teach us to ask
the right questions.
936
00:46:49,487 --> 00:46:52,033
See, we're on the edge
of a revolution
937
00:46:52,033 --> 00:46:53,397
in communications
technology
938
00:46:53,397 --> 00:46:55,030
that is going to make
that more possible
939
00:46:55,030 --> 00:46:58,620
than ever before;
or if that's not done,
940
00:46:58,620 --> 00:47:01,596
to cause an explosion
of knowledge
941
00:47:01,596 --> 00:47:04,608
that will leave those of us
who don't have access to it,
942
00:47:08,789 --> 00:47:10,415
And, I don't thinkwere
most people want that.
943
00:47:11,663 --> 00:47:12,616
So, what do we do
about it?
944
00:47:13,903 --> 00:47:15,599
I don't know.
945
00:47:15,948 --> 00:47:17,573
But maybe a good start
946
00:47:17,573 --> 00:47:20,120
would be to recognize
within yourself
947
00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:23,267
the ability to understand anything,
because that ability is there,
948
00:47:24,027 --> 00:47:25,818
as long as it's explained
clearly enough.
949
00:47:26,546 --> 00:47:29,438
And then, go and ask
for explanations.
950
00:47:30,704 --> 00:47:32,239
And, if you're
thinking right now,
951
00:47:34,316 --> 00:47:38,163
Ask yourself, if there's
anything in your life
952
00:47:38,163 --> 00:47:40,141
that you want changed.
953
00:47:40,848 --> 00:47:42,086
THAT's where to start.